Australia housing bubble

[MITCHAY]

Inflation up (no surprise) but spending down. Still expect another 0.25 next week.

I have to love all the renters who think their landlords are the devil. Sure there are some proper ****s around but remember one thing.

No one ever buys an investment property to make the renters life easy. They also don't buy it to screw them either in most cases

[blueoval]

the government is expecting at least another 0.25 per cent interest rate rise tomorrow, potentially higher.


https://www.skynews.com.au/australia...8124c34ceae6b2

Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell says the government is expecting at least another 0.25 per cent interest rate rise tomorrow, potentially higher.

“We know the economist Warren Hogan is arguing the Reserve Bank needs to go bigger now, maybe 0.4, to save the pain later,” Mr Clennell said.

“I think from the government’s point of view, they think Warren Hogan has ignored softer retail figures and jobs growth slowing.

“That’s going to be the number one issue this week for most people.”

[Citroënbender]

Cue for the ABC to run more articles on housing affordability, featuring the adorable Eliza Owen.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Cue for the ABC to run more articles on housing affordability, featuring the adorable Eliza Owen.

Factor in @ least another 1% rise within 6 months.

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by hackney

Factor in @ least another 1% rise within 6 months.

I’m in savings mode, there’s something interesting coming up nearby but I feel it’s not likely to be a profitable flipper - especially whilst carrying an injury. So the money stays in the bank.

Originally Posted by anobserver

Or how much avo on toast costs.

I’ve got a little avocado tree started, will be a few years off fruiting though.

[anobserver]

Dont forget the articles on how hard the boomers had it, at 17% interest rates.

Or how the younger generations should lower their expectations.

Or how much avo on toast costs.

Or how rates will stay down until 2024 at least. Shame on you, Philip Lowe!

Or how you should be refinancing.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/mon...03-p5chnv.html

Or how much we can save by ditching coffee and lunches.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bus...06-p5cib1.html

And on it goes.

Its going to be a long decade.

And i just love the opportunism. Like the scribblers on 150k a year, encouraging you to buy their book.
https://www.jessicairvine.com.au

(And who only reluctantly admit they cooked their goose by overborrowing, and are freaking at at a pending reversion to variable rates this year, bit still have the nerve to offer financial advice)

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by anobserver

Dont forget the articles on how hard the boomers had it, at 17% interest rates.

Or how the younger generations should lower their expectations.

Or how much avo on toast costs.

Or how rates will stay down until 2024 at least. Shame on you, Philip Lowe!

Or how you should be refinancing.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/mon...03-p5chnv.html

Or how much we can save by ditching coffee and lunches.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bus...06-p5cib1.html

And on it goes.

Its going to be a long decade.

And i just love the opportunism. Like the scribblers on 150k a year, encouraging you to buy their bopk.
https://www.jessicairvine.com.au

(And who only reluctantly admit they cooked their goose by overborrowing, and are freaking at at a pending reversion to variable rates this year, bit still have the nerve to offer financial advice)

Ah yes. Love the occasional lecturing from those who benefited from the biggest boom time ever. 17% back in those days is not the same as 17% today. Size of loan vs income + cost of living pressures, makes today's scenario very different. Forgoing a few smash avos, if that's your thing, and cups of coffee ain't going to make up $1000+ in extra repayments per month.

Rentals have also shot through the roof. I have had the same tenant in one of my properties for 5 years. At the start of the 5 years, I was charging 35% more per week than similar apartments next door, but fully furnished, and because my agent said I could . I haven't upped the rent in those 5 years. Now the same apartments next door are going for more than mine....unfurnished....crazy.

[anobserver]

Exhibit #472,738:

You should make sacrifices, says boomer who slummed it in downtown Coogee for years on end.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/real...7f5fd691ecc08d

[anobserver]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Cue for the ABC to run more articles on housing affordability, featuring the adorable Eliza Owen.

Dismal science, indeed.

[Citroënbender]

I wish Aunty would follow up some of their “impending problems” mortgage stories published last year. They’re big on poverty porn with respect to people who are really doing it tough but seem to cut the ones in the middle, excessive slack.

[FTE217]

https://apple.news/ALe03ZR7HQciYK3zcb7uMtg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BA-XT]

For a period of not less than twenty minutes between 5:30PM and 7:30PM (8:30PM DST) on days of fair weather Sunday to Friday, it is expected that residents will progress forth from their homes to walk gently around the development, exchanging pleasantries and compliments with other residents."

Sorry I know this is an old post, but WTF. I have some questions.

Firstly, who would ever police this? If you're not out and walking will the local HOA knock on your door?

That is the most rediculous thing I've heard.

With these new estates that state driveways need to be at a certain angle, certain colours cannot be used ect, how long afterwards does it all get forgotten and possible pretty much build add ons and how they want to without anyone really caring?

About 5 years or pretty much after the estate is built?

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by BA-XT

For a period of not less than twenty minutes between 5:30PM and 7:30PM (8:30PM DST) on days of fair weather Sunday to Friday, it is expected that residents will progress forth from their homes to walk gently around the development, exchanging pleasantries and compliments with other residents."

Sorry I know this is an old post, but WTF. I have some questions.

Firstly, who would ever police this? If you're not out and walking will the local HOA knock on your door?

That is the most rediculous thing I've heard.

With these new estates that state driveways need to be at a certain angle, certain colours cannot be used ect, how long afterwards does it all get forgotten and possible pretty much build add ons and how they want to without anyone really caring?

About 5 years or pretty much after the estate is built?

Estates are just the beginning. The idea is to get used to 15min cities worldwide.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/...ty-stickiness/

[MrEL]

I can see it being approved for existing mortgages to be rewritten and buffered out to 50 years.
Payments would drop back to the levels people signed up for and they will happily pay it forever knowing its costing them a crap load more coin in the end but they still have somewhere to live.
Banks will go for it because suddenly they get an extra 20 years of interest out of people and they are not stuck trying to move on a house for recovery in a dead market.
The government will rubber stamp it because they will be the hero's that saved the day by giving relief to voters.........

[Poetic Justice]

I don't see anything wrong with that if you're happy to be in that type of environment.

I'm very happy being in a somewhat rural suburb these days with two girls under 7.. but when those girls are ready to leave the nest, I won't be hesitating to move back to inner city suburbs like Fitzroy/Collingwood etc subject to affordability.

[T3rminator]

Right on cue

https://www.news.com.au/finance/real...03d97578d58254

[Poetic Justice]

Originally Posted by That article T3rminator linked

But it was Ms Boylett’s advice for Millennials that truly sparked uproar, as she suggested young people give up holidays, nights out and buying new technology so they can get onto the property ladder.

“They (Millennials) want, you know, the latest mobile phone, the latest iPad, they want a nice car, they want to go on holidays, they still want to go out to restaurants – they pay $20 or $30 for a drink if they go out, have a nice time,’ she said.

I mean, she's got a point, does she not?

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Poetic Justice

I mean, she's got a point, does she not?

If one assumes that is a true representation of what young home owners are doing, then yes.

[Poetic Justice]

Young renters, you mean? lol

But yeah, perhaps a generalisation but I don't think I'd be going on too much of a limb if I suggested that the younger crew live more liberally than their parents did at the same age. This isn't just necessarily choice so to speak though, because their parents traditionally had kids younger and therefore different responsibilities.

The only thing to add to that though, is that if they want to live a liberal lifestyle, just be sure not to complain about any inability to get in to the property market.

[FTE217]

Whats your POV on it T3 ?
Curious to see.
That apple article I posted earlier quotes GenX are in the good position interestingly.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FTE217

Whats your POV on it T3 ?
Curious to see.
That apple article I posted earlier quotes GenX are in the good position interestingly.

So we are talking about comparison of housing affordability yeh? The apple article starts off with "single mum in 1995" and I already know its going to be some boomer telling the current generation they have it easier

If you look at the data, rather than articles which will always have some bias depending on who the article quoting, current generations have it tougher. This is base on income to loan ratio alone. Add to it other cost of living pressures (e.g. insurance costs), I don't think its a fair representation to say the woes of the younguns are due to their lattes and smashed avo addictions

https://www.aph.gov.au/about_parliam...gaffordability

Having said that, I do still think there are affordable housings around, but just not in the most desirable areas where everyone wants to get into. I think sacrifices have to be made there, especially with many organisations now allowing semi permanent work from home.

[GO FURTHER]

Who had it harder... Boomers, Generation X or Millennials?

I think this chart, sums it up fairly well.

The 3 "points in time", represent the 3 generations above.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

Who had it harder... Boomers, Generation X or Millennials?

I think this chart, sums it up fairly well.

The 3 "points in time", represent the 3 generations above.

image

The percentage of monthly wage to service a mortgage seems approximately the same 1990-NOW

Of course the devil is in the detail with those numbers.

Two incomes in 1990 only $54k ? In Sydney?....NAhhhhh
I recall earning $80k on my own.

I also recall NOT having a theatre/multimedia room, NOT having a 75 inch flat screen, NOT driving a new car or two new cars.

I also recall banks completely disregarding a spousal income in the mortgage stress test.

shock...horror to all the girlie princesses these days.

flame suit on.

[Citroënbender]

Indeed, women were still seen as fecund liabilities. My parents, as New Australians, were nearly refused a loan in the sixties due to perceived inadequate savings. A canny friend snooped on the issue and topped up their account with a spur-of-the-moment $3K cash deposit, the revised letter of credit sorted things.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

Who had it harder... Boomers, Generation X or Millennials?

I think this chart, sums it up fairly well.

The 3 "points in time", represent the 3 generations above.

image

Got to say from my own 1st loan experience in 1990.
A 2bed semi in Petersham.
Kitchen was like a galley and only cold water - bathroom was up the creek, backyard the size to swing a cat and on street parking.
Loan was $153k plus the other additional charges.
$20k deposit @ 17%.
All our work doing Reno’s through trade contacts, wall cracks you name it no bells and whistles.
Both working, mum in-law baby sitter from the get go why buying close too in-laws, hated the area but had to be or buy way out west afford a house.
It was crawl like mad before you walk.
1 second hand car for wife i had a company car.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by FTE217

Got to say from my own 1st loan experience in 1990.
A 2bed semi in Petersham.
Kitchen was like a galley and only cold water - bathroom was up the creek, backyard the size to swing a cat and on street parking.
Loan was $153k plus the other additional charges.
$20k deposit @ 17%.
All our work doing Reno’s through trade contacts, wall cracks you name it no bells and whistles.
Both working, mum in-law baby sitter from the get go why buying close too in-laws, hated the area but had to be or buy way out west afford a house.
It was crawl like mad before you walk.
1 second hand car for wife i had a company car.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Going by the chart I posted earlier, I would say that Millennials will have it the hardest.
Simply because their debt-to-income ratio is more than double that of the Boomers.

Let's face it, many Boomers were able to easily pay out their relatively small mortgages (especially once interest rates dropped from the initial high 17% they were paying for a few years to the much lower 5 - 8%), over the term of their loans, well before the 25 - 30 year term finished.

This allowed many of them to invest in other areas, such as an investment property, shares or buy luxury items, once their mortgages were paid out, and build their wealth.

In contrast, it is unlikely that many Millennials will be able to pay out their mortgages early, so will be faced with the ongoing struggle of monthly mortgage stress for a much longer term than the Boomers.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

Who had it harder... Boomers, Generation X or Millennials?

I think this chart, sums it up fairly well.

It assumes someone now is in a position to put down a 20% deposit. They're not, so add at least $100-150k to the amount borrowed, plus LMI. And borrowing >>80% LVR means an interest rate closer to 6% today.

[blueoval]

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/perso...onth-c-9678235

0.25% Increase

[FTE217]

TBH T3, I hardly read much crap nowadays for as mentioned, depends by whom, the bias yaddayadda - journalism today is sensationailsm/click bait as they say more than anything else.
Reality tv is/has been popular, why can't the media put out some "real" good/positive millineal stories instead of beating this BB's GenX etc BS.
I've observed some hitting their goals from hard work, marriage, buying 1st home, first kid and as you say, WFH is a whole new perspective to working life and your future.
Others trying but struggling, not everyone is a saver or will be a home owner no matter the Gen.

My observations is having 3 kids 30/22/18yrs, friends of theirs I get to know, relos niece's nephews etcetc...more so real world observations and listenning.
All these people have had various levels of upbringings/single parenting and varied support and not.

IMO what BB's considered tuff, tuff applies to following Gens of the times, thats how it is.
The silver spooners are no different past to present then you have the movers and shakers do'ers and the its all too hard %.
Thats life.
Each Gen have their mountain/s be it Insurnace, be it interest rates, be it market prices you name it.......the goal posts always change.
Correct there is affordable housing around, some can't accept moving further than half hour drive let alone an hour lol......
Main thing is is getting yourself in, thats the mental sacrifice more than anything else compared to avo's latte's etc.....

Another look I have is, so be it if less affordable 1st home housing is getting out of reach, just get on with working and living and see where you end up.
Can't beat yourself up forever nor blame past or present, just live as long as you have health, roof over your head eat socialise just keep looking ahead.
Many other countries isn't about having the anvil of a mortgage.
Keep looking at links of reasons why its better or worse might as well shoot yourself in the foot let alone the head, all bad news.

[BENT_8]

Before rents started going crazy id agree that its not such a bad option but now you'd have to be crazy to consider life long renting.
Im glad we decided to jump back into ownership when we did, the build has been delayed due to shortages so we'll have to sign another lease in the meantime which will come with an increase to just under $400pw whereas the mortgage will be a bit over half of that.