Covid 19 -

[marty351]

Or he voted for Hillary.

[russellw]

184 new cases for Australia and no deaths so CMR drops to 1.082% and active cases rise to 2,104 (21.1%). Queensland recorded 1 while NSW recorded 14 and the balance were in Victoria.

No new case and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.425% and active cases remain at 25.

The UK recorded 530 new cases and 11 deaths yesterday so the CMR drops to 15.452%.

Just over 58k new cases in the USA yesterday and 380 deaths sees CMR down to 4.036% and active cases at 51.5% but the raw numbers are rising. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Turkey completes 4M, Spain 6M and the UK 12M tests;
North America passes 4M cases;
Asia passes 3M cases;

El Salvador (304), Algeria (494), Uzbekistan (594), Israel (1,962) and Oman (2,164) recorded new daily highs, those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[cheap]

And then there are people like this far-quit.

https://www.news.com.au/world/corona...5362326b4f3b04

[ford71V8]

Originally Posted by cheap

And then there are people like this far-quit.

https://www.news.com.au/world/corona...5362326b4f3b04

Not sure if you are referring to the bike rider or the cop.


Looked to me like the cop made his own decision on what the right thing to do is.

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by cheap

And then there are people like this far-quit.

https://www.news.com.au/world/corona...5362326b4f3b04

He should be put down on compassionate grounds.

Not because he's a threat to my well being, just because he's a DH.

[Sprintey]

For those trying to have a chuckle through this, here's today's tragicomedy:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-...ayors/12452450

"An online tourism campaign that uses colourful language to urge people to stay away from regional Victoria has raised the ire of some of the regions its trying to promote."

"We did a first run of six [posters] and we got inundated. Literally every town has asked for one," Mr Wheeler said."


Had a good laugh at the Portland one...

[Tassie f100]

Maybe he slipped the cop a couple of greenies

[russellw]

A quick look at where the Victorian cases have been located for both all identified cases and currently active ones.

Each of the two graphs includes (in red) those shires outside the GMA.

[T3rminator]

Hi everyone. Just wanted to leave a quick note, and hopefully it helps someone. I know we've had a lot of different perspective on CV19. But can I ask that we please please take this virus seriously. I will admit I have been one of those that was aware of the seriousness of CV19, but never thought it was serious enough to affect me or someone close.

Last night we received news that a primary school teacher of mine (back in grade 1 and 2) had contracted CV19. Yep, we still kept in touch after all these years, and I'm now 41. She moved to Madagascar to teach a number of years ago. Anyhow, she had been feeling unwell for about 10 days. She finally decided to see a doctor a couple of days ago, they didnt have enough room for her in hospital, so she was made to recover at home. It didn't sound that serious at first, she even sent some photos of herself recovering on the couch. Today, we had news she lost her battle. She had no known pre-existing conditions that could have taken her so quickly. She was in her 60s. It has come as a big shock. She only came to visit me in Melbourne 18 months ago.

So I leave you with this message. Please please take this thing seriously. If you feel unwell, don't wait, go get tested. Use masks. Keep your distance. And avoid crowded places where social distancing is not possible. Don't take any risks. This virus is REAL and it does KILL.

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by b0son

What you want to be looking at is excess deaths... the additional number of deaths over a given period compared to previous periods.

If comorbidities were so significant, there should be very few excess deaths compared to previous years. Those people would be dying anyway.

I keep hearing/reading about people dying and the argument is whether they died of Covid, or some other pre existing condition. See post #4148 for example.

So I put forward a scenario of a 55 year old male with a pre existing condition, who contracted Covid. Then died.

What was the reason for his death? Curious as to peoples thoughts.

[xxx000]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

I keep hearing/reading about people dying and the argument is whether they died of Covid, or some other pre existing condition. See post #4148 for example.

So I put forward a scenario of a 55 year old male with a pre existing condition, who contracted Covid. Then died.

What was the reason for his death? Curious as to peoples thoughts.

Man with terminal cancer gets hit by a car and dies.
Cause of death is obviously being hit by the car

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

I keep hearing/reading about people dying and the argument is whether they died of Covid, or some other pre existing condition. See post #4148 for example.

So I put forward a scenario of a 55 year old male with a pre existing condition, who contracted Covid. Then died.

What was the reason for his death? Curious as to peoples thoughts.

What you want to be looking at is excess deaths... the additional number of deaths over a given period compared to previous periods.

If comorbidities were so significant, there should be very few excess deaths compared to previous years. Those people would be dying anyway. ©b0son

[cheap]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

What you want to be looking at is excess deaths... the additional number of deaths over a given period compared to previous periods.

If comorbidities were so significant, there should be very few excess deaths compared to previous years. Those people would be dying anyway. ©b0son

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%...3?opendocument

On 14 July 2020 at 06:35:29 PM (Canberra time), the resident population of Australia is projected to be:
25,629,734

This projection is based on the estimated resident population at 31 December 2019 and assumes growth since then of:
one birth every 1 minute and 44 seconds,
one death every 3 minutes and 15 seconds

On this basis Aussies dying from C19 is background noise.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by cheap

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%...3?opendocument

On 14 July 2020 at 06:35:29 PM (Canberra time), the resident population of Australia is projected to be:
25,629,734

This projection is based on the estimated resident population at 31 December 2019 and assumes growth since then of:
one birth every 1 minute and 44 seconds,
one death every 3 minutes and 15 seconds

On this basis Aussies dying from C19 is background noise.

And your point is.....

[cheap]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

And your point is.....

My point is, measuring the ‘excess C19 deaths’.

Since ~1st March with Australia’s first recorded c19 death, there’s been 108 C19 Aussie deaths.

And based on a average 450/deaths/day well over 60,000 Aussies have died during the same period.

Ask a statistician about measuring the excess.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

I keep hearing/reading about people dying and the argument is whether they died of Covid, or some other pre existing condition. See post #4148 for example.

So I put forward a scenario of a 55 year old male with a pre existing condition, who contracted Covid. Then died.

What was the reason for his death? Curious as to peoples thoughts.

Different regions are reporting this differently.

I have a friend who works in the NHS in the UK. As a general rule of thumb, they will presume and count it as CV19, if the patient had CV19, regardless of whether they had pre-existing condition. During the height of the pandemic, in some cases, health workers were so scared to enter aged care homes, they will just count it as CV19, and get external parties to remove the bodies. This is just what my NHS mate is telling me, I have no hard evidence to back this up. I believe this method of counting is the same in the US where hospitals get reimbursed from the government for CV19 cases, but not for other causes.

In Asia I'm hearing that they will only count CV19 if they believe it is the main contributing factor. How they determine that I don't know. This is just from what relatives living in those regions are telling me, I haven't found any data to back this up.

Not sure how it is done here.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Different regions are reporting this differently.

I have a friend who works in the NHS in the UK. As a general rule of thumb, they will presume and count it as CV19, if the patient had CV19, regardless of whether they had pre-existing condition. During the height of the pandemic, in some cases, health workers were so scared to enter aged care homes, they will just count it as CV19, and get external parties to remove the bodies. This is just what my NHS mate is telling me, I have no hard evidence to back this up. I believe this method of counting is the same in the US where hospitals get reimbursed from the government for CV19 cases, but not for other causes.

In Asia I'm hearing that they will only count CV19 if they believe it is the main contributing factor. How they determine that I don't know. This is just from what relatives living in those regions are telling me, I haven't found any data to back this up.

Not sure how it is done here.

There will be a lot that would claim this as anecdotal evidence. But I too have heard this from family members in the UK and other sources. But have not evidence to back it up either.

The problem is, if you don't fall in line with the narrative, and you sprout this as gospel, you are labeled a conspiracy theorist or condemned for not being a medical professional.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

What was the reason for his death? Curious as to peoples thoughts.

What was the primary cause for him dying before his time?

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by b0son

What was the primary cause for him dying before his time?

Yep.


So many out there will be saying he died because of his pre existing liver/immune condition. Not because of Covid.

Again, see post number 4148 as an example. The poster said something on the lines of 'his medical condition was unknown, could have been overweight, a heavy smoker, takeaway fiend, cardiac condition'.

He went to a Covid party, contracted the virus, and died.

But did he not die because of Covid??

[GTP owner]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

I keep hearing/reading about people dying and the argument is whether they died of Covid, or some other pre existing condition. See post #4148 for example.

So I put forward a scenario of a 55 year old male with a pre existing condition, who contracted Covid. Then died.

What was the reason for his death? Curious as to peoples thoughts.

The immediate cause of death is respiratory failure
The condition causing the above - Covid19 infection.
Antecendent causes (conditions present and contributing to cause of death) eg COPD, chronic heart failure, Type 2 diabetes.

[fordomatic]

Hearing rumours of stage 4 by Friday in Melbourne

[Sprintey]

What level is stage 4? Completely house bound?

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by fordomatic

Hearing rumours of stage 4 by Friday in Melbourne

Yeap same.

[CoupeKing]

Can I get one of those masks for next winter so I don't catch a cold.

[T3rminator]

At this moment in time, its fake news. Rumour started off as midnight tomorrow.

Check SMH blog 5.01pm

[cheap]

Meanwhile, as reported in The Australian...

Vic health chief flags tougher restrictions
Further restrictions in Victoria ‘need to be considered’, Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton says, adding: ‘We can’t rule anything out’

[Franco Cozzo]

Stage 4 means nothing if you don't quantify what it is

Next week Melbourne is going into Stage 73 lockdown.

[XR Martin]

Deaths arnt overstated.
In the 2nd quarter of this year, the US had 120k more deaths than the same time last year. Only 90k were officially recorded as covid related.

The UK has a similar excess 'unexplained' deaths (something like an extra 10k and that figure was months ago) , and so do alot of countries.

BTW the UK early on were not recording covid deaths unless they were in a hospital.

[XR Martin]

I've said it before, but deaths arnt the real issue.

How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

There are two problems with this question.
It neglects the law of large numbers; and
It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine.

The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead.

Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once.

The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right?

What about the people who survive?

For every one person who dies:
19 more require hospitalization.
18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.
10 will have permanent lung damage.
3 will have strokes.
2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination.
2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function.

So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes:
3,282,000 people dead.
62,358,000 hospitalized.
59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage.
32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage.
9,846,000 people with strokes.
6,564,000 people with muscle weakness.
6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function.

That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get.

The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Stage 4 means nothing if you don't quantify what it is

Next week Melbourne is going into Stage 73 lockdown.

Not stage 73! Noooo!